La Liga

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La Liga

This week’s fixtures with a model prediction on each, the table as it stands, Monte Carlo projections for where the season finishes, and the clubs and players carrying it. Covers the domestic leagues and the UEFA cups. Ratings come from Panna, an open-source RAPM+SPM blend that nets xG created against xG conceded on one scale.

La Liga 2026-27 projected final table from 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	Pts now	Projected pts	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3
1	Barcelona	30	92	67.8%	100.0%	0.0%
2	Real Madrid	27	87	26.8%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Atlético de Madrid	28	80	5.3%	99.6%	0.0%
4	Real Betis	23	68	0.1%	81.3%	0.0%
5	Real Sociedad	19	56	0.0%	7.0%	0.2%
6	Athletic Club	15	53	0.0%	3.9%	0.6%
7	Sevilla	17	53	0.0%	3.6%	0.7%
8	Villarreal	12	53	0.0%	3.1%	0.7%
9	Rayo Vallecano	12	48	0.0%	0.7%	4.4%
10	Celta de Vigo	12	46	0.0%	0.3%	7.6%
11	Levante	10	44	0.0%	0.1%	13.6%
12	Espanyol	11	43	0.0%	0.1%	14.3%
13	Valencia	9	43	0.0%	0.1%	17.5%
14	Deportivo de La Coruña	14	42	0.0%	0.0%	20.2%
15	Alavés	12	42	0.0%	0.1%	20.6%
16	Elche	10	42	0.0%	0.1%	21.8%
17	Osasuna	11	42	0.0%	0.0%	22.1%
18	Racing de Santander	11	40	0.0%	0.0%	30.1%
19	Getafe	12	39	0.0%	0.0%	35.3%
20	Málaga	5	29	0.0%	0.0%	90.3%

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