Primeira Liga

Football · Leagues & Sims · Projected Standings

Primeira Liga

This week’s fixtures with a model prediction on each, the table as it stands, Monte Carlo projections for where the season finishes, and the clubs and players carrying it. Covers the domestic leagues and the UEFA cups. Ratings come from Panna, an open-source RAPM+SPM blend that nets xG created against xG conceded on one scale.

Primeira Liga 2026-27 projected final table from 10,000 simulated seasons

#	Team	Pts now	Projected pts	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3
1	Porto	30	51	69.7%	100.0%	0.0%
2	Benfica	25	49	28.9%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Sporting CP	21	42	1.4%	95.8%	0.0%
4	Santa Clara	21	36	0.0%	61.5%	0.0%
5	Académico de Viseu	20	32	0.0%	16.0%	0.0%
6	Arouca	20	32	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%
7	Sporting Braga	14	30	0.0%	8.6%	0.0%
8	Gil Vicente	15	29	0.0%	4.6%	0.2%
9	Alverca	11	24	0.0%	0.4%	3.1%
10	Famalicão	10	24	0.0%	0.3%	4.3%
11	Moreirense	14	23	0.0%	0.1%	3.8%
12	Vitória Guimarães	9	22	0.0%	0.1%	8.6%
13	Marítimo	8	19	0.0%	0.0%	34.2%
14	Estrela	10	18	0.0%	0.0%	34.5%
15	Rio Ave	7	18	0.0%	0.0%	39.0%
16	Casa Pia	7	17	0.0%	0.0%	46.5%
17	Nacional	7	17	0.0%	0.0%	50.6%
18	Estoril	2	14	0.0%	0.0%	75.3%

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